Targets and Progress Review - Mitigation Scenarios

Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios: modelling report provided to the Climate Change Authority in support of its Caps and Targets review

The Authority requested assistance from the Commonwealth Treasury and the former Department of Industry, Innovation, Climate Change, Science, Research and Tertiary Education (DIICCSRTE) to provide input to its economic analysis for the Targets and Progress Review.

The Treasury and DIICCSRTE undertook economic modelling of different climate change mitigation scenarios in close consultation with the Authority.
This report provides the results of that modelling exercise, including updated emissions projections and economic analysis. The results do not constitute official Australian Government projections

Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios Report (PDF)

• Preliminaries
• Executive summary
• Chapter 1
• Chapter 2
• Chapter 3
• Appendix A
• Appendix B
• Appendix C
• References
• Corrigenda for report

Underlying data for figures

• Chart 0.1: International action reduces emissions
• Chart 0.2: Domestic emissions are reduced and further abatement is sourced overseas
• Chart 0.3: The emissions intensity of the economy falls over time
• Chart 0.4: Emissions reductions occur across all sectors
• Chart 0.5: Economic effects depend on carbon prices and 2020 targets
• Chart 1.1: How the models fit together
• Chart 2.1: Baseline gross world product and global emissions
• Chart 2.2: Baseline regional shares of gross world product and global emissions
• Chart 2.3: Atmospheric concentration pathways
• Chart 2.4: International carbon prices
• Chart 2.5: Gross world product and global emissions
• Chart 2.6: Global emissions
• Chart 2.7a: Global emissions reductions by gas
• Chart 2.7b: Global emissions reduction by gas
• Chart 2.8: Changes in sectoral output from output levels
• Chart 2.9: Global coal output
• Chart 2.10a: Australia’s share of global trade for selected exports
• Chart 2.10b: Australia’s share of global trade for selected exports
• Chart 2.11a: Global emissions reductions by sector
• Chart 2.11b: Global emissions reductions by sector
• Chart 2.12: Global electricity sector technology shares
• Chart 2.13a: Global renewable electricity generation shares
• Chart 2.13b: Global renewable electricity generation shares
• Chart 2.14a: Global transport technology shares
• Chart 3.1: Projected Australian carbon unit prices
• Chart 3.2: National emissions trajectory
• Chart 3.3: Industry shares of employment, 1990 to 2030
• Chart 3.4: Export shares by industry
• Chart 3.5: NEM electricity generation sent out
• Chart 3.6:  Australia’s net emissions and sources of abatement
• Chart 3.7: Economy-wide trends in emissions intensity
• Chart 3.8: Emissions by sector
• Chart 3.9: Emissions reductions by sector
• Chart 3.10: Share of cumulative emissions reductions by sector
• Chart 3.11: Electricity emissions, 2000 to 2030
• Chart 3.12: Electricity sector emissions
• Chart 3.13: Emissions intensity of electricity generation
• Chart 3.14: Sources of electricity generation – Central scenario
• Chart 3.14: Sources of electricity generation – High price scenario
• Chart 3.14: Sources of electricity generation – Low price scenario
• Chart 3.14: Sources of electricity generation - No carbon price scenario
• Chart 3.15: Renewables by technology – share of total generation – Central scenario
• Chart 3.15: Renewables by technology – share of total generation –High price scenario
• Chart 3.15: Renewables by technology – share of total generation –Low price scenario
• Chart 3.15: Renewables by technology – share of total generation –No carbon price scenario
• Chart 3.16: Electricity demand
• Chart 3.17: Average wholesale electricity prices
• Chart 3.18: Domestic fuel prices
• Chart 3.19: Direct combustion emissions, 2000 to 2030
• Chart 3.20: Transport emissions, 2000 to 2030
• Chart 3.21: Transport emissions
• Chart 3.22: Transport activity and emissions
• Chart 3.23: Road freight fuel mix, central policy scenario
• Chart 3.24: Fugitive emissions
• Chart 3.25: Industrial process emissions
• Chart 3.26: Waste emissions
• Chart 3.27: Agriculture emissions
• Chart 3.28: Land use and land use change emissions
• Chart 3.29: Forestry emissions
• Chart 3.30: Abatement from the CFI by sector
• Chart 3.31: Covered and uncovered emissions
• Chart 3.32: Gross domestic product
• Chart 3.33: Capital stock
• Chart 3.34: Real wages
• Chart 3.35: Output growth by broad sector, 1990 to 2030
• Chart 3.36: Energy extraction industries
• Chart 3.37: Emissions intensity by state
• Chart 3.38: Gross state product
• Chart 3.39: GNI per person
• Chart 3.40: GNI per person under various caps
• Chart A.1: Allocations and emissions
• Chart A.2: Real gross world product
• Chart A.3: Global emissions projections
• Chart A.4: Australia’s terms of trade
• Chart A.5: Australian population
• Chart A.6: Industry labour-augmenting technical change
• Chart A.7: Agriculture, forestry and fishing labour-augmenting technical change
• Chart B.1: Comparison of emissions projections
• Chart C.1: CFI annual abatement by subsector
• Chart C.2: Total CFI abatement for alternate policy scenarios

Underlying data for tables

• Table 2.2: Comparison of carbon price projections
• Table 2.3: Global headline indicators
• Table 2.4: Shares of global emissions, mitigation, population and gross world product in 2050
• Table 2.5: Global emissions by sector
• Table 2.6: Sensitivity analysis: gross world product in 2050
• Table 2.7: Sensitivity analysis: Australia’s share of world exports in 2050
• Table 3.2: Domestic emissions projections
• Table 3.3: National economic indicators
• Table 3.4: Gross output, by industry, 2020
• Table 3.5: Gross output, by industry, 2030
• Table 3.6: Gross output, by sector, 2020
• Table 3.7: Gross output, by sector, 2030
• Table 3.8: Growth in output by state and sector
• Table 3.9: GNI per person
• Table 3.10: Comparison of economic effects