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Sensitivity analysis of modelling of light vehicle emission standards in Australia

The Authority requested assistance from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) to provide input to its economic analysis for the Targets and Progress Review.
The CSIRO undertook economic modelling to quantify the emissions reduction potential from introducing various emission standards in light vehicles in Australia’s transport sector under various scenarios.

Report

This report provides the results of that modelling exercise.

Underlying data for figures

Download the Excel Version to see all underlying data Figures below.

  • Figure 1-1: The emission standards sensitivity cases
  • Figure 1-2: Projected light vehicle greenhouse gas emissions by sensitivity case
  • Figure 2-2: Emission standards trajectories to 2050
  • Figure 3-1: Projected road transport fuel consumption by fuel under the no carbon price scenario, all vehicles
  • Figure 3-2: Projected road transport fuel consumption by fuel under the no carbon price scenario, light vehicles
  • Figure 3-3: Engine type in road kilometres travelled, no carbon price scenario, all vehicles
  • Figure 3-4: Engine type in road kilometres travelled, no carbon price scenario, light vehicles
  • Figure 3-5: Road transport greenhouse gas emissions by mode under the no carbon price scenario
  • Figure 3-6: Road transport sector greenhouse gas emissions under the no carbon price scenario, all vehicles
  • Figure 3-7: Road transport sector greenhouse gas emissions under the no carbon price scenario, light vehicles
  • Figure 3-8: Vehicle kilometres travelled, light vehicles
  • Figure 3-9: Uptake of EV, PHEV and FCV in light vehicles
  • Figure 3-10: Electricity fuel use in light vehicles
  • Figure 3-11: Average fuel use light vehicle fleet
  • Figure 3-12: Greenhouse gas emissions light vehicles
  • Figure 3-13: Carbon intensity, light vehicles
  • Figure 3-14: Projected marginal cost of light vehicle travel
  • Figure 4-1: Comparison of the 130gCO2e case and emission standards modelled in this report
  • Figure 4-2: Greenhouse gas emissions, light vehicles, no carbon price scenario and minimum efficiency sensitivities
  • Figure 5-1: Projected road transport fuel consumption by fuel under the Early Low sensitivity case, light vehicles
  • Figure 5-2: Projected road transport fuel consumption by fuel under the Early Mid sensitivity case, light vehicles
  • Figure 5-3: Projected road transport fuel consumption by fuel under the Early High sensitivity case, light vehicles
  • Figure 5-4: Projected road transport fuel consumption by fuel under the Late Low sensitivity case, light vehicles
  • Figure 5-5: Projected road transport fuel consumption by fuel under the Late Mid sensitivity case, light vehicles
  • Figure 5-6: Projected road transport fuel consumption by fuel under the Late High sensitivity case, light vehicles
  • Figure 5-7: Engine type in road kilometres travelled, Early Low sensitivity case, light vehicles
  • Figure 5-8: Engine type in road kilometres travelled, Early Mid sensitivity case, light vehicles
  • Figure 5-9: Engine type in road kilometres travelled, Early High sensitivity case, light vehicles
  • Figure 5-10: Engine type in road kilometres travelled, Late Low sensitivity case, light vehicles
  • Figure 5-11: Engine type in road kilometres travelled, Late Mid sensitivity case, light vehicles
  • Figure 5-12: Engine type in road kilometres travelled, Late High sensitivity case, light vehicles
  • Figure 5-13: Greenhouse gas emissions by light vehicle mode, Early Low sensitivity case
  • Figure 5-14: Greenhouse gas emissions by light vehicle mode, Early Mid sensitivity case
  • Figure 5-15: Greenhouse gas emissions by light vehicle mode, Early High sensitivity case
  • Figure 5-16: Greenhouse gas emissions by light vehicle mode, Late Low sensitivity case
  • Figure 5-17: Greenhouse gas emissions by light vehicle mode, Late Mid sensitivity case
  • Figure 5-18: Greenhouse gas emissions by light vehicle mode, Late High sensitivity case